Big Weekend, Small Reaction

When bunker-busters don’t bust the trend, stay focused on flows and fragility

Jun 22, 2025

Boring Might Be the Best

“Operation Midnight Hammer” dropped late Saturday, with the U.S. reportedly launching 14 bunker-buster strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In early trading—thin and illiquid as expected—oil futures are up about 5%, while S&P futures are down less than 1%. It looks like the market had largely priced in a U.S. intervention alongside Israel—arguably the most anticipated large-scale military action in recent memory.

Right on cue, the permabulls are declaring “the worst is behind us” now that the shoe has dropped. That’s easy to say when you don’t have any real skin in the game.

Our view hasn’t changed: the real risk here is a true tail risk—if Iran has a functional nuclear device and decides to use it. Barring that, these strikes are unlikely to cause sustained downside in the market beyond the initial knee-jerk move.

Eyes on What Matters

We remain cautious. This isn’t the setup to make bold directional bets off headlines. Flows and technicals are still holding up—unless Iran manages a major retaliation soon.

Markets have a habit of moving on quickly from geopolitical events—especially when the retaliation risk is priced more as a “when,” not an “if.” Take trade deals, for instance: not a single one has been finalized, yet markets behave as if we’ve already secured a dozen, all favorable to the U.S.

So we’ll stay the course. The things that matter most to us haven’t changed: deteriorating macro trends, increasingly questionable data quality, and the upcoming TGA refill, which could quietly sap liquidity from the system.

Unless retaliation escalates significantly, this weekend’s drama could fade quickly into background noise. And in markets, boring isn’t just good—it might be the best-case scenario if you’re milking the risk premium. Don’t forget: upside risk is still risk, depending on your positioning.

SPX Quarterly OpEx and JPM’s Collar: Breaking the Pattern

S&P 500 Insider Activities

Growth Quality Dashboard (Rule of 40)

Earnings This Week

For the week of June 23, 2025, notable earnings releases for companies with a market cap above $2 billion include:

2025-06-23: AM FDS 0.00%↑ CMC 0.00%↑

2025-06-23: PM KBH 0.00%↑ EPAC 0.00%↑

2025-06-24: AM CCL 0.00%↑ SNX 0.00%↑ FIZZ 0.00%↑

2025-06-24: PM FDX 0.00%↑ AVAV 0.00%↑ WOR 0.00%↑ BB 0.00%↑

2025-06-25: AM PAYX 0.00%↑ HLN 0.00%↑ GIS 0.00%↑ LEVI 0.00%↑

2025-06-25: PM MU 0.00%↑ JEF 0.00%↑ FUL 0.00%↑

2025-06-26: AM FER 0.00%↑ MKC 0.00%↑ WBA 0.00%↑ AYI 0.00%↑ SMPL 0.00%↑

2025-06-26: PM NKE 0.00%↑ CNXC 0.00%↑

2025-06-27: AM PDI 0.00%↑

To add this FREE shared calendar, visit https://bit.ly/3ANoPtZ and click the ➕ "+" sign in the lower right corner. For iPhone, iPad, or any CalDAV device, don’t forget to enable iOS sync via https://calendar.google.com/calendar/u/0/syncselect