Close to Support, Close to a Move

A good week to reset your positioning either way

Nov 24, 2025

A Bounce Is Near - A Good Time to Reposition for Your View

The past three weeks have felt volatile, with an average swing of about 3.5%. Yet we’re still only ~4% off all-time highs, and outside of the big reversal after Nvidia’s earnings, not much panic.

Technically, a bounce is the consensus expectation. We’re sitting near the 50-day SMA, and the Mag 10 are only a few percent above their first meaningful support levels. That sets up next week as a good window to reposition based on your market view.

If you’re bullish, there may be a quick head fake early in the week before a push back above the 50-day SMA. If you’re bearish, that bounce could be your entry to re-establish shorts or sell premium if you missed the earlier move.

The bullish structure has definitely weakened. A run to 7,000 becomes less likely if we chop around this zone for another week. At the same time, you can’t lean too bearish either — it only takes one headline or tweet to gap us back above the 50-day, and from there you’re roughly 2% from ATHs with all the bullish narratives back on the table.

We still lean toward a December cut. Everyone is effectively auditioning for next year’s Fed chair seat, or signaling loyalty to the White House — so a 50 bps “trial balloon” wouldn’t surprise us. If they actually deliver 50 bps, markets can interpret it as “things must be bad” and sell off. If they don’t, markets can be disappointed and sell off. Either way, the setup forces the Fed to follow through or commit to more cuts.

We added some index-level call spreads and will likely sell straddles or iron condors against them on pops. The bullish structure is dented enough that even the “this is 1997” crowd is acknowledging the possibility of a full 10% pullback toward ~6,300 before ramping again. 6,500 is the key level we’re watching — three closes below it, and Santa may not show up this year.

It’s a short holiday week ahead. If we’re traveling, we may skip next week’s update.

Happy early Thanksgiving to those celebrating, and safe travels.

SPX Quarterly OpEx and JPM’s Collar

500 Insider Activities

Growth Quality Dashboard (Rule of 40)

Earnings This Week

For the week of November 24, 2025, notable earnings releases for companies with a market cap above $2 billion include:

2025-11-24: AM CAAP 0.00%↑ WRD 0.00%↑

2025-11-24: PM A 0.00%↑ SYM 0.00%↑ KEYS 0.00%↑ ZM 0.00%↑ WWD 0.00%↑

2025-11-25: AM BABA 0.00%↑ ADI 0.00%↑ BHP 0.00%↑ KEP 0.00%↑ BURL 0.00%↑

2025-11-25: PM DELL 0.00%↑ ADSK 0.00%↑ WDAY 0.00%↑ ZS 0.00%↑ HPQ 0.00%↑

2025-11-26: AM DE 0.00%↑ JBS 0.00%↑ LI 0.00%↑ BMA 0.00%↑ HAFN 0.00%↑

2025-11-26: PM CLSK 0.00%↑

2025-11-27: AM AXIA 0.00%↑ LPL 0.00%↑

2025-11-28: AM IESC 0.00%↑ KEN 0.00%↑

To add this FREE shared calendar, visit https://bit.ly/3ANoPtZ and click the ➕ "+" sign in the lower right corner. For iPhone, iPad, or any CalDAV device, don’t forget to enable iOS sync via https://calendar.google.com/calendar/u/0/syncselect